*********** 042993B.PHY *********** Country: France From: Agenda item 6.1 IOC-XVII/8 Annex 2 Paris, 27 January 1993 INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION(of UNESCO) Seventeenth Session of the IOC Assembly Paris, 25 February - 11 March 1993 ACTION PAPER Annex 2 GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM (GOOS) THE APPROACH TO GOOS KEYWORDS: Climate monitoring, Physical Oceanography, UNESCO +++++ Part II of IV. Part I contains: Table of Contents and Executive Summary. This part contains BACKGROUND, OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE, BASIC APPROACH, and FUNDING SECTIONS. Part III contains Modules of GOOS and Implementation: a Phased Approach sections. Part IV contains Practical Applications and Economic Benefits, GOOS Management, Timetable and Actions, and Action sections. +++++ 2. BACKGROUND 2.1 WHY THE OCEAN? Today we are experiencing unprecedented pressures on our natural resources. Sustainable development of these resources is hindered by our inability to detect emerging environmental problems at an early stage when remedial measures are still possible. Nowhere is this inadequacy so pronounced as in the marine area. Global energy cycles and the biological processes upon which all life depend are critically influenced by the ocean. But our knowledge of the ocean and humanity's impact on it is only now beginning to recognize the complexity and interdependence of all aspects of the system. Improved knowledge and predictive capabilities will be the basis for more effective and sustained use of the marine environment, with the associated economic benefits. The two conventions signed at the UNCED Conference already commit us to establish an adequate observing system to help develop understanding, and to monitor change. Many of the processes which control the variability and change of global climate are themselves controlled by processes in the ocean. Public perceptions of risk are only eased when governments are seen to be keeping a close watch on the environment, including the ocean. 2.2 WHY NOW? Solutions to environmental problems are costly, and costs will increase exponentially as environmental quality declines further. The sooner we are able to adequately predict future changes in our environment, the sooner we can begin to address options and funds for solutions. Potential effects of climate change aggravate current environmental problems and add another dimension to their complexity. Uncertainties now exist with regard to the causes, rate and timing o,f climate change. A key to resolving these uncertainties lies in the long memory of the ocean. For example, the oceans are both a source and a sink for carbon dioxide. There is now general agreement that we cannot move forward in predicting climate change and variability without monitoring the ocean on a long-term basis. The climate component of the Global ocean Observing System is to serve as the ocean component of a Global Climate observing System. Having these systems in place is a prerequisite to intelligently planning ameliorative actions to deal with undesirable manifestations of climate change. For example, the question of how sea level will respond to global warming - man-made or natural - is crucial to many nations, and the debate will not be settled without an adequate observing system. For the first time technology is available to obtain systematic global ocean observations and to process and interpret the tremendous amounts of data generated. with the new satellite missions being planned for this decade, the amount of remotely-sensed data to be available will increase exponentially. And progress made in scientific understanding is contributing to our ability to develop a Global Ocean Observing System on a sound basis. Model development needed to reduce uncertainties has reached a plateau; more complete and more accurate data sets are critical. Although WOCE, TOGA, JGOFS, and other global change research programmes are collecting data, such research programmes are time-limited; they are not designed for the purpose of providing systematic observations beyond their scheduled completion dates. The long lead times necessary for implementing an operational ocean observing system for the post- TOGA-WOCE-JGOFS period requires its definition now and its immediate initial implementation. 3. OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE The objective of the Global Ocean observing System (GOOS) is to ensure global, permanent, systematic observations adequate for forecasting climate variability and change; for assessing the health or state of the marine environment and its resources, including the coastal zone; and for supporting an improved decision-making and management process, which takes into account potential natural and man-made changes in the environment and their effects on human health and resources. GOOS will provide a mechanism and infrastructure for data and information to be made available on various time scales to participating nations. As a result individual national observing capabilities will be strengthened. GOOS is an internationally coordinated system for systematic operational data collection (measurements), data analysis, exchange of data and data products, technology development and transfer. GOOS will use a globally-coordinated, scientifically-based strategy to allow for monitoring and subsequent prediction of environmental changes globally, regionally and nationally. The data will be gathered by remote sensing and by sea surface and sub-surface instrumentation, from the open ocean as well as from coastal regions, including enclosed and semi-enclosed seas. The data should include all major physical, chemical, and biological properties which have been identified as required to meet the needs described above. 4. BASIC APPROACH GOOS will be established by Member States and implemented through nationally-owned and operated facilities and services. Coordination is provided by IOC in cooperation with WMO, UNEP and ICSU. GOOS is based on the principle that all countries should participate and that participants should make certain commitments, according to their capabilities to fulfill such commitments, so that all countries can benefit. As the founders of IOC noted in regard to the mission of the IOC, the implementation of GOOS presents far too formidable a task to be undertaken by one nation or even by a few nations. GOOS will be developed from operational arid scientific data gathering systems already in place, such as IGOSS, IODE, and GLOSS, and from those presently being planned. Observations should be: (i) long-term, i.e., measurements once begun should continue into the indefinite future; continuity in the observed quantity is to be sought, rather than in the method, as it is anticipated that more effective methods may become available in the future; (ii) systematic, i.e., measurements should be made in a rational fashion, with the spatial and temporal sampling as well as the precision and accuracy tuned to address the specific aspects of GOOS; (iii) relevant to the global system, i.e., measurements should be made either to document the ocean parameters important to the issues underlying the modules of GOOS, or to provide data needed to initialize and validate models that describe and predict these parameters on a seasonal to decadal time scale and beyond; (iv) measurements should be coast effective, i.e., efforts should be made to maximize the return on available resources (financial and manpower) by applying observational methods that are economical and efficient; (v) measurements should be routine, i.e., the observations should be considered as part of the normal work load, with the acquisition, quality control, and dissemination of products to be carried out with regularity. The design of GOOS, and the use of GOOS data, need to be closely linked with the recent and continuing advances in numerical modelling of ocean and coupled ocean-atmosphere systems. GOOS will utilize remote sensing of the ocean surface from satellites and in-situ measurements using ship-borne observations, towed and anchored instrument systems, drifting buoys and sub-surface floats. The development of new technology will be fostered. Experimental technology will be incorporated as it becomes operationally useful, e.g., long-range acoustic propagation through the ocean and powered sub-surface automated vehicles. Initially, measurements will describe some of the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of oceans, marginal seas, and coastal waters. Continuous observation and monitoring using consistent techniques that produce compatible data will permit the detection of trends, monitoring, and comparisons among regions, and computation of total global changes. Demonstrating the effectiveness of GOOS in this decade - is important. Areas for initial emphasis (listed below under each module) are those which can result in useful, needed products and information in a relatively short time frame. Additional data products will be generated each year, as GOOS is developed and integrated, beginning with operational demonstrations in 1995. Early products will be based on single parameters or types of observations, such as wave conditions, sea surface temperature, sea ice or depth to the thermocline. Later, more sophisticated products will be based on the synthesis of several parameters. Such a flow of products will demonstrate early and continuing economic and social benefits, as applications and interpretations can be made for local and national planning and decision making purposes. GOOS, when fully operational, will provide ocean data sets that will allow regular global and regional oceanographic analyses and predictions (on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis) . it is assumed that for each product type there is a spatial and temporal range of scales, from the local and short term, to the global multi-decadal scale. In practical terms this means from about 100 km and three days, to global coverage over one to two decades. Many shorter term and local or regional products could be produced, some with limited accuracy, by a single agency or programme. As the space and time scales of forecasts are increased, the added value produced by GOOS increases. Additionally, the accuracy of products and predictions is greatly increased by including associated parameters in the modelling forecast for one particular parameter. This procedure is facilitated by the availability of standard global data sets for the additional parameters, generated within the framework of GOOS. It will not be possible to sample the ocean densely enough in time and space to provide an adequate description by measurement alone. Only by assimilating the data into suitable models will maximum advantage be taken of the data, and only by using models will it be possible to make predictions. Models can tie the observations together and put them in appropriate context. They can also help identify the nature and location of the most crucial observations. The design of GOOS includes the concept of interdependence among observations, data assimilation, and numerical models. It is foreseen that forecast models now being developed can be initialized and regularly up-dated by data from the Global Ocean Observing System. Data from a global observing system must be made available in a timely fashion to researchers, to modelers for predictions, to managers and other users. This timeliness requirement is less stringent than that of the weather forecast because the inherent time scales are longer. Data must also be archived properly so that accurate climatological benchmarks can be established. But model outputs, forecasts and related interpretations need to be provided in a timely fashion to user communities and decision-makers. Substantial training, education and mutual assistance efforts and technology transfer initiatives need to be launched to enable all countries to participate in GOOS and to interpret and apply the resulting data and information. Many countries suffer from a lack of facilities and skilled personnel to analyze and interpret the data. Exchanges of products and technology must be ensured. IOC is encouraging the concept of partnerships between developing and developed countries. 5. FUNDING Existing observational systems are funded from a combination of operational programmes and research programmes. It is essential that GOOS be established with new operational funding, as a permanent service rather than depending upon data collection efforts of research activities that are limited in duration. GOOS represents a recognition that oceanography is now an operational discipline. It is the payoff of decades of investments in ocean research. The required resources for a fully operational GOOS will consist of two parts: those resources already committed and identified for ongoing and planned observational programmes, and those additional resources required for establishing the adequate observational capability of the marine environment. Detailed estimates of costs have not yet been established. Early estimates suggest that the additional investment needed is from four to ten times the current investment, but that increased benefits *amortize that investment several times over. Examples of benefits are given in section 8. Because of the phased stages of development of GOOS, each with a defined deliverable product, governments can review their commitment to the system at regular intervals. Governments are now being requested to support the next two-year planning phase of GOOS, the establishment of a GOOS Support Office at the IOC Secretariat, the funding of a joint GOOS Technical and Scientific Committee, and the establishment of a GOOS Support Fund as part of the IOC Trust Fund. Governments are also requested to indicate in principle their support for the subsequent planning phases of GOOS, and the GOOS operational demonstrations. ************** END Msg. B.PHY **************