*********** 061194B.ENV *********** Country: Various From: Appendix I Global Carbon Dioxide Emission Scenarios and their Basic Assumptions: Tsuneyuki MORITA, Yuzuru MATSUOKA, Ian PENNA, and Mikiko KAINUMA Center for Global Environmental Research 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305, Japan CGER-1011-94 77 p. KEYWORDS: Carbon Dioxide, Econometric Models, Greenhouse Gases, Global Warming +++++ APPENDIX I GHG EMISSION MODELS AND RELATED MODELS (Model Information) Model Name Model Developer Model Type Forecast Period Literature Assumptions Latest Information Listed alphabetically by model developer. Part I/V Authors A-E ==================== IMAGE2 Alcamo et al. Multi-disciplinary, integrated model 1990-2100 Alcamo, J., G.J.J. Kreileman, M. Krol and G. Zuiema (1993) ModeRing the Global Society-Biosphere-Climate System: Part 1: Model Description and Testing. Papers of International Workshop on Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 13-15 October, 1993, Laxenburg, Austria. Alcamo, J., G.J.J. Kreileman, M. Krol and G. Zuiema (1993) Modelling the Global Society-Biosphere-Climate System, Part 2: Computed Scenarios. Water, Air, Soil, Pollution (Submitted). Computes greenhouse gas emissions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production; simulates changes in global land cover based on climatic ana economic factors; and computes the buildup of greenhouse gases and resulting zonal average temperature and precipitation patterns. +++++ ENERGY SCENARIOS MODEL Anderson and Bird Top-down. Models energy sector, 1990-2050 technology selection, technological development. Calculates the effect on econorriic growth having first estimated the costs. Includes a relationship between investment and cost reduction in alternative supply technologies. Latest information on this model Anderson, D. and C.D. Bird (1992) Carbon Accumulations and Technical Progress - A Simulation Study of Costs. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 54, No. 1, Feb. "Business As Usual" Scenario Population: Exogenous; 1990: 5.284 billion; Growth rate to 2025: 1.3%/annum; 2050: 10 billion, 0.75%/annum. Economic growth: Endogenous; 2000: $25,000 billion; Growth rate 2000-2020: 3.2%/annum; 2050: $105,000 billion; Growth rate 2020- 2050: 2.7%/annum. 1990 dollars. Technology: AEEI: 1%/annum; Assumes back-stop technologies, the main one of which is solar energy and other forms of renewable energy. Their costs decline with investment and technical progress. Energy price: Exogenous; Oil: $25/bbl. (ex-refinery) rising to $40/bbl. Energy reserves: Supply elasticities are related to future price. Fossil fuel reserves are needed over the period, but there is a gradual shift to "synfuels" over the next half century. Other: The marginal costs of the backstop technologies are determined in the liquid fuel market by the costs of hydrogen and the fuel ceil electric vehicle. This amounts to less than $20/bbl. Emissions: Fossil fuel C02: 1990: 6 billion tones C; 2050: 20 billion tonnes C. Special characteristics: In the Renewable energy scenario, as renewables are substituted for fossil fuels, C02 emissions rise to 8 billion tonnes of carbon in 2020 and decline to 6 billion in 2050, and prospectively 0 in 2100. +++++ METHANE ECONOMY Ausubel, Gruebler, Nakicenovic Market penetration model 1850-2100 Latest information on this model Ausubel, J.H., A. Gruebler and N. Nakicenovic (1988) Carbon Dioxide Emissioon.9 in a Methane Economy . IIASA Reprint RR-88-7, December, Laxenburg, Austria, Reprinted from Climate Change 12 (1988) pp. 245-263. "Business As Usual" Scenario Population: 1987: 5 billion; 2100: 10.4 billion. Energy consumption: Primary energy use and market shares for efficiency and long-wave scenarios (btce, rounded figures). Efficiency scenario Long-wave scenario Year 1986 2030 2100 2030 2100 ================================================================= Wood <1 (1%) < 1 < 1 < 1 <1 Coal 2(21%) < 1 < 1 1 (3%) <1 Oil 4(41%) 2(11%) < 1 4(11%) <1 Gas 3(34%) 12(69%) 3(14%) 23(69%) 16(14%) Nuclear <1 (3%) 3(16%) 13(63%) 5(16%) 77(63%) Sulfur 0 < 1 5 (23%) < 1 27(23%) Total energy consumption 10 17 21 33 120 Energy reserves: Global conventional and inconventional gas are accepted to be about 4,600 billion tonnes C. Deforestation/Afforestation: Not included. +++++ GLOBAL 2000 MODEL Barney Unified sectorial model 1975- 2000 Barney, G.O. (1980) The Global 2000 Report to the President. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. Population: 2000: 5.9-6.8 billion; GNP Growth rate: 3.6% (medium); GNP: 2000: 14.7 trillion 1975 US dollars (medium); Resources: Oil: 645.85 billion bbl., Gas: 2,519,659 billion cu ft, Coal: 786 bilhon tonnes. FOSSIL 2 - AES Belanger and Neifl Recursive generalized equilibrium 1990- 2030 (US energy markets) Gaskins, D.W., Jnr. and J.P. Weyant (1993) Tentative Conclusions from Energy Modelling Forum Study Number 12 on Controlling Greenhouse Gas Emissions. in Y. Kaya et al. (Eds.) Costs, Impacts, and Benefits of C02 Mitigation, Proceedings of a Workshop held on 28-30 September 1992 at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 235-246. GDP, Prices, Energy supply, price and mix, Energy supply and demand technologies, C02 emissions, Carbon offset. Equilibrium in energy sector's markets: primary, secondary, electric, etc. No markets for capital, labor, or other nonenergy goods. Reference GDP and/or energy service demand exogenously-given. Price and/or GDP effects of demand through aggregate 'feedback equations'. +++++ GLOBUS Bremer et al. Nation-based political-economic 1970 - 2010 discrete-time-step model Bremer, S.A. (Ed.) The GLOBUS Model: Computer Simulation of Worldwide Political and Economic Developments. Frankfurt am Main: Campus Verlag or Boulder, Westview Press. Population: 2025: 7.2-9.1 billion; GNP: 2025: 15 trillion US dollars (estimate). +++++ WORLD BANK POPULATION Bulatao et al. Bulatao, R.A., E. Bos, P.W. Stephens and M.T. Vu (1990) Population Projections, 198990 edition. Short and Long-term estimates. The World Bank, John Hopkins University Press. World Population: 2100: 11.3 billion. +++++ CHANDLER Chandler Edmonds-Reilly 1975- 2025 Chandler, W. (1985) Energy Productivity: Key to Environmental Protection and Economic Progress . Worldwatch Paper 63, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C. +++++ BEEAM (Brookhaven Energy Economic Cherniavsky Assessment Model) Linear program model Cherniavsky, E. (1974) Brookhaven Energy System Optimisation Model. Topical Report BNL 50873, Brookhaven National Laboratory, N.Y. +++++ ESCAPE Climatic Research Unit Bottom-up, partial equilibrium. - Netherlands Models energy sector, technology selection, 1990-2100 technological development, land-use/agric., and linked to climate change/impact model. Latest information on this model Rotmans, J., M. Huhne and T.E. Downey (1994) Climate change implications for Europe: an application of the ESCAPE model. Global Environmental Change, (in press). Hulrne, M. and S. Raper (1993) An Integrated Framework to Address Climate Change (ESCAPE) and Further Developments of the Global and Regional Climate Modules (MAGICC). Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, England. Papers of International Workshop on Integra- tz@ve Assess-rnent of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 13-15 October, 1993, Laxenburg, Austria. "Business As Usual" Scenario Population: Exogenous; regional growth rates only. Economic growth: Exogenous; regional growth rates only. Energy prices: Exogenous. Energy reserves: Supply elasticities not related to future price. Deforestation/Afforestation: Image 1.5 land use model; deforestation is driven by demand for food products; land conversion is modemed accordingly. Emissions: Fossil fuel C02: 1990: 5.85 billion tonnes C; 2100: 20.21 billion tonnes C Anthropogenic C02: 1990: 7.87 billion tonnes C; 2100: 21.09 billion tonnes C Anthropogenic CH4: 1990: 414.74 billion tonnes CH4; 2100: 998.46 billion tonnes CH4 Anthropogenic N20: 1990: 9.21 billion tonnes N20; 2100: 10.87 million tonnes N20 Anthropogenic CFC11 equiv.: 1990: 0.876 million tonnes; 2100: 3.015 million tonnes Special characteristics: Uses IMAGE 1.5 to calculate emissions from land-use changes. +++++ MAGICC Climate Research Unit Integrated individual components 1990-2100 Hulme,,M. and S. Raper (1993) An Integrated Framework to Address Climate Ch ange (ESCAPE) and @ther Developments of the Global and Regional Climate Modules (MAGICC) Climatic Research Unit, School of Envirom-nental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, England. Papers of International Workshop on Integrative Asessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 13-15 October, 1993, Laxenburg, Austria. +++++ COLOMBO-BERNADINI Colombo and Bemadini 1975- 2030 Colombo, U. and 0. Bernadine (1979) A Low Energy Growth 2030 Scenario and the Perspectives for Western Europe. Report to the Commission of the European Communities, Brussels. +++++ PNL/OTA Edmonds, Batnes, Ton ERB Version 4.01 1990-2095 Edmonds, J., D.W. Barns and M. Ton (1993) The Regional Costs and Benefits of Participation in Alternative Hypothetical Fossil Fuel Carbon Erriissions Reduction Protocols. in Y. Kaya et al. (Eds.) Costs, Impacts, and Benefits of C02 Mitigation, Proceedings of a Workshop held on 28-30 September 1992 at IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 291-314. Population: 2095: 10.4 billion; Labor productivity growth rates: 2095: 0.93-2.85; Energy end-use energy intensity improvement rate: 1%. +++++ EDMONDS & REILLY Edmonds and Reilly Partial Equilibrium 1975-2050 Edmonds, J.A. and J.M.. Reilly (1983) Global Energy and C02 to 2050. The Energy Journal, Vol. 4, No. 3, pp. 21-47. Edmonds, J.A., J.M. Reilly, J.R. Trabalka and D.E. Reichle (1984) An Analysis of Possible Future Atmosphertic Retention of Fossil Fuel C02. (DOE/OR/21400-1) U.S. Department of Energy, Washington D.C. Available from NTIS, Springrield, Va. Edmonds, J.A. and J.M- Reilly (1985) Global Energy: Assessing the Future. Oxford University Press, N.Y. Edmonds, J.A., J.M. Reilly, R. Gardner, and A. Brenkert (1985) Uncertainty in Carbon Emissions, 1975 - 2075 (Contractor Report). Institute for Energy Analysis, Oak Ridge, Term. Available from NTIS, Springfield, Va. Edmonds, J.A. and J.M- Reilly (1986) The Long-Term Global Energy- CO2 Afodel: PC version A84PC. Carbon Dioxide Information Center, Oak Ridge, Tenn. Barns, D.W., J.A. Edmonds, and J.M. Reilly (1992) Use of the Edmonds-Reilly Model to Model Energy-Related Greenhoule Gas Emissions. Econorriics Department Working Papers No. 113, OECD, Paris. Population: 2075: 8.45 billion; GNP growth rate: (1975-2050) 1.8- 2.6 %; GNP: 2050: $24.8-42.6 trillion (1975 US dollars). Global fuel markets, GNP, Population, Energy price and supply, Technological changes. Equilibrium in energy sector's markets: primary, secondary, electric, etc. No markets for capital, labor, or other nonenergy goods. Reference GDP and/or energy service demand exogenously-given. Price and/or GDP effects on demand through aggregate 'feedback equations'. +++++ SECOND GENERATION MODEL Edmonds et al. General Equilibrium Edmonds, J.A., H.M- Pitcher, D. Bams, R. Baron and M.A- Wise (1991) Modelling Future Greenhouse Gas Emiiiions: The Second Generatt*on Model Delcription. Presented at the UNU Conference on "Global Change and Modelling." Tokyo, Japan. Fisher-Vanden, K. et al. (1993) The Second Generation Model of Energy Use, the Economy, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Presented to the 6th Annual Federal Forecasters Conference, Crystal City, Va., September, 1993, Papers of International Workshop on Integrative Assessment of Mitigatz'on, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 13-15 October, 1993, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. GCAM Edmonds et al. Integration of various models Edmonds, J.A., H.M. Pitcher, N.J. Rosenberg and T.M.L. Wigley (1993) Design for the Global Change Assessment Model - GCAM. Papers of International Workshop on Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 13-15 October, 1993, Laxenburg, Austria. Currently being developed to increase understanding in the area of integrated global change analysis. CSERGE Fankhauser Stochastic greenhouse damage model 1991-2030 Fankhauser, S. (1993) The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Eniissions: An Expected Value Approach. Centre for Social and Econorriic Research on the Global Environment. University College London and University of East Anglia. Paperq of International Workshop on Integrative Assessment of Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change, 13-15 October, 1993, Laxenburg, Austria. Assesses the marginal social costs of greenhouse gas emissions. +++++ End I/V authors A-E ************** END Msg. B.ENV **************