*********** +++++++++++++++++++++ 070895B.ENV + Source: ONR Asia + *********** +++++++++++++++++++++ Contributory Categories: BIO,GEO,ENG Country: South Africa From: Meeting Program and Abstracts KEYWORDS: South Africa; Modelling, Natural Resources +++++ 1995 WORLD CONFERENCE ON NATURAL RESOURCE MODELLING UNIVERSITY OF NATAL PIETERMARITZBURG, SOUTH AFRICA 5-10 JULY, 1995 Compiled by John Hearne Part II of V: Program continued +++++ THURS 6th JULY Thurs: 08.30-09.10 Bill Reed INVITED PLENARY Marino Gafto, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Does natural selection favour oscillations and chaos in population dynamics? Anthony Charles, Saint Mary's Univ, Canada, (RL Mazany, ML Cross) A predictive model of illegal fishing Mark Dent, Univ of Natal, SA Strategic issues in natural resource modelling Thurs: 10.20-1 1.00 (2x2O) Mark Dent Anthony Starfield, Univ of Minnesota, USA Resource modelers and managers: professionals or amateurs? Charles Breen, Univ of Natal, SA (N Quinn) A perspective on the challenges facing natural resource modellers. FRIDAY 7TH JULY Fri: 08.30-09.10 Norman Owen-Smith INVITED PLENARY Mark Stafford Smith, CSIRO, Australia, (A Ash) Paradigms at their limits in rangelands; what can we learn? A SPECIAL SYMPOSIUM ON DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY IN HERBIVORE-VEGETATION INTERACTIONS IN VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS B CONCURRENT SESSIONS A Fri: 09.10-10.30 (4x2O) Norman Owen-Smith Emilio A Laca, Texas Tech Univ, USA Grazing across multiple spatial scales: model and experiment. Robert Hudson, Univ of Alberta, Canada, (Z Jiang) Space-action systems of wapiti: Linking bioenergetics and behaviour. A W lllius, Univ of Edinburgh, Scotland Modelling the effects of seasonal variability on plant-herbivore dynamics; the St Kilda grazing system John M Fryxell, Univ of Guelph, Canada Spatial dynamics of Serengeti herbivores in relation to pasture quality and abundance. Fri: 11.00-12.40 (5x2O) O'Connor Bob Scholes, CSIR, SA, (AC Carter) How the carbon, nitrogen and water cycles constrain African multi-species Tim herbivory systems Jim Ellis, Univ of the Witwatersrand, SA, (RS Reid) Livestock effects on tree regeneration in Turkana: positive feedbacks as system stabilizers? Herbert T Prins, Wageningen Agricultural Univ, Netherlands ( M Rietkerk Recognition of critical thresholds in savanna ecosystems: Is it possible to predict crashes from field indicators? J A Fortune, Univ of Adelaide, Australia The influence of sheep on the sustainability of annual legume pastures in southern Australia. lain Gordon, MLURI, UK, (S D Buckland) Multiple objective management of red deer in Scotland: Conflict or compromise. Fri: 14.00-15.30 (5xl 5) Bob Scholes Tim O'Connor, Univ of Natal, SA Vegetation change in a changing and variable world David Ward, Ben Gurion Univ, Israel Metapopulation consequences of dorcas gazelle herbivory on populations of lilies in the Negev desert. Tom Montague, Lincoln Univ, New Zealand The extent, timing and economics of browsing mammal damage in eucalypt and pine plantations. Jonas Chafota, Univ of Witwatersrand, SA, (N Owen-Smith) Localized severe impacts by elephants on canopy trees in Chobe National Park, Botswana. Grant Hatch, Univ of Natal, SA, (N.M. Tainton & G.F. Ortmann) UnivTowards the development of a bioeconomic stocking model for the semi-arid savanna of KwaZuiu-Natal Fri: 16.00-17.00 (4xl 5) Tim Lynam Mark B Hardy, Dept of Agriculture, SA Sustainability and the grazing capacity concent: a range management dilemma Peter Scogings, Fort Hare Univ, SA, Mile Coleman Sustainable utilisation of rangelands in variable environments: An Eastern Cape perspective. Greg Stuart-Hill, North West Parks Board, SA (D. Grossman) Rangeland management in developing areas. Daniel Magome, North West Parks Board, SA Wildlife and sustainable rural development: Is it possible? B Fri: 09.10-10.30 (4x2O) Gordie Swartzman David McDonald, CSIRO, Australia, (ADM Smith) A framework for analysing returns from research for fishery management. Jose'de Oliveira, Sea Fisheries Research Institute, SA The management procedure for South African pilchard and some alternatives. Gerhard Cruywagen, Sea Fisheries Research Institute, SA A two-sex delayed recruitment model with harvesting. Leanne Scott, Univ of CapeTown, SA River basin planning through scenario analysis Fri: 11.00-12.30 (4x2O) Loo Botsford Gordon Swartzmann, Univ of Washington, USA Do pelagic fish schools cluster? Anesh Govender, Oceanographic Research Institute, SA, (SL Birnie) Mortality of juvenile dusky sharks from mark-recapture data. Bruce Tomalin, Oceanographic Research Institute, SA Modelling the effects of fishing on coastal invertebrate populations in KwaZulu-Natal Neville Quinn, Univ of Natal, SA, (AK Whitfield, J W Hearne) Managing South African estuaries to maximize fish recruitment. Fri: 14.00-15.30 (4x2O) Ashley Mullen Geoff Tuck, CSIRO, Australia, (ADM Smith) An application of Stock Reduction Analysis to a spatially resolved population: The Tasmanian orange roughy fishery. Johan Swart, Univ of Natal, SA, (MJ Lawes) The effect of habitat patch connectivity on samango monkey metapopulation persistence. Roland Lamberson, Humboldt State Univ, USA, (M Martin, R Ward) A preliminary model relating hippopotamus population dynamics to river flow. Steven Higgins, Univ of CapeTown, SA, (DM Richardson, RM Cowling) The role of plant-environment interactions and model features on the predicted rate and paftem of invasive plant spread. Fri: 16.00-17.15 (3x2O) Gerhard Cruywagen Simon Woodward, Ag Research Whatawhata, New Zealand A dynamical systems model for sulphur fertiliser decisions on grazed pasture land. Mario Getimane, Eduado Mondiane Univ, Mozambique A dynamic programming (DP) model with constraints in the state space. Lynn Van Coller, Univ of British Columbia, Canada Alternative techniques for analysing system dynamics models SATURDAY 8th July 9.10-10.30 A SPECIAL SYMPOSIUM ON DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY IN HERBIVORE-VEGETATION INTERACTIONS IN VARIABLE ENVIRONMENTS - Continued B POSTER SESSION A Sat: 09.10-10.30 (4x2O) Jim Ellis Tim Lynam, WWF, Zimbabwe Integrating formal scientific knowledge and indigenous technical knowledge in a spatially explicit agroecosystem model. Andrew Ash, CSIRO, Australia (M Stafford Smith) How recommendations derived from point-based forage production and stocking rate models can lead to resource degradation in Australia's rangelands Peter Goodman, Natal Parks Board, SA Decision support modelling for savanna park management John Hearne, Univ of Natal, SA (P Goodman, R Lamberson) Optimizing the economic returns from a multi-species herbivory system. B POSTER SESSION Sat: 09.10-10.30 Elmari Du Toit, Univ of Stellenbosch, SA (GC Cruywagen) A bioeconomic investigation of the Cape Rock Lobster resource. N J Dominy, Univ of Natal, SA, (NS Ferguson, A Maddock) Computer modelling of the elephant population in the Hluhluwe- Umfolozi Park. W Killian, Ministry of Environment and Tourism, Namibia The ecology of gemsbok in the southem Namibia. Rhidian Harrington, Univ of Witwatersrand, SA Causes of the roan antelope decline in northem Kruger Park. Sat: 11.00 -17.00 A and B CONCURRENT SESSIONS C 2nd INTERNATIONAL FORAGING BEHAVIOUR WORKSHOP A Sat: 11.00-12.40 (5x2O) Nevil Quinn Louis Botsford, Univ of California, Davis, USA strategies for the endangered Extinction probabilities, delisting criteria and recovery Sacremento River winter run Chinook salmon. Pat Wilde, Office of Naval Research, Japan, (Mary Quinby-Hunt) Modelling anoxia for water quality measurements in marine and estuarine environments Jill Slinger, EMATEK, SA Management of small, bar-built estuaries - A modelling perspective Dan Baird, Univ of Port Elizabeth, SA An assessment of temporal changes in ecosystem function: A network analysis approach. Joanne Busse, Univ of Natal, JW Hearne, JB Adams) A spatial dynamic model of three estuarine plants Sat: 14.00-15.30 (4x2O) Jill Slinger Tom Powell, Univ of California, Berkeley, USA Near-boftom isohaline position: a habitat indicator for estuarine populations in San Francisco Bay, U.S.A. M Pillay, Umgeni Water, SA Phosphorus-loading/algal-production regression model for the lnanda Impoundment. Nico Roussouw, CSIR, SA Application of a general river water quality model to the Vaal river, South Africa some lessons leamt. M Graham, Umgeni Water, SA, (M James) Modelling algae/environment relationships in the lnanda Dam, KwaZuiu, Natal. B Sat: 1 1. 00-1 2.40 (5x2O) Rollie Lamberson Irene Taviv, Stewart Scott Inc., SA Water and sanitation tariffs as an economic tool. Abbas Azizi, ENGEN, SA Application of the mathematical programming in predicting the sulphur dioxide emission in an oil refinery. Kathleen Crowe, Humboldt State Univ, USA Size and stage-structured competition for a limiting resource Pieter Uys, Univ of Natal, SA (JW Hearne, DE Coniong) Precision simulation of predator-prey insect populations John H. Swart, Univ of Natal, SA Some aspects of age-dependent population dynamics B Sat:14.00-15.30 (4x2O) Tony Starfield E M Lungu, Univ of Botswana, Botswana Stochastic models for wildlife populations or for epidemiology Marylynn Barkley, Univ of California, Berkeley, USA, (L Botsford) A model of the population dynamic interactions between the female immune system and borrelia burgdorferi, the spirochete that causes lyme disease. Davod Tilch , Univ of the Witwatersrand, SA, (SA Hanrahan) Dynamic simulation modelling of locust outbreaks. Bruce Brocket, North West Parks, SA A white rhino population model for Pilanesberg National Park A Sat: 16.00-17.00 (3x2O) Charles Breen Bill Dietrich, Univ of California, Berkely, USA, (O Sullivan, ME Power) The use of an Analytical Reference state in watershed analysis. Kareen Prestegaard, University of Maryland, USA Assessment of spatial and temporal hydrological data needs for wetiand management Craig Nicholson , Univ of the Witwatersrand, SA, (Anthony Starfield) Modelling channel change on the Sabie river: an incremental approach. C 2nd INTERNATIONAL FORAGING BEHAIOUR WORKSHOP Sat: 11.00-17.00 Emilio Laca Michael Coughenour, Colorado State Univ, USA Spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling to evaluate ecological adaptations of pastoralism, responses to development, and consequences for persistence in a variable environment Unstructured discussions +++++ End Part II/V Selected Marine related Abstracts in Parts III-V CMR Disclaimer================================================== This document could contain information all or part of which is or may be copyrighted in a number of countries. 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